Now we know a bit more

[Igneouss]

'we had nearly three times the number of tickets requested than we had available tickets' Andie Grace

That means about ~110,000 tickets were requested. That's on top of the pre sale 10,000.

Scalping is not the problem. I've focused on scalping as the primary issue driving change and that was clearly wrong. Scarcity is the real issue.

So how many more tickets than necessary did the average registrant apply for? Or said another way, how many are legit ticket registrations? Or, what is the 'real' magnitude of the over subscription.

It's not a difficult math problem. There are 40,000 spots. There are 110,000 requests. Some requests were oversubscriptions and some were legit. Over subscription seems to have been in the 1.7 to 2.0 range which means 28,000 to 40,000 tickets ((x-1)*40,000). That means there are between 30,000 and 42,000 'real' requests for tickets BEYOND the allocated 40,000 (110,000-(x+40,000)).

So something slightly less than 1 out of every 2 actual people will not get a ticket (only considering the 40k main sale).

Redistribution of all remaining tickets (BMorg states 10,000 but many suspect this number is lower, but we'll assume 10k) will only meet about 1/3 of unmet demand.

So if you are an 'average' theme camp/group/etc (is there such a thing?), then you already have about 1/3 of your ticcies. You can expect about another 1/3 if all 10k tickets are 'radically' redistributed directly to you.

So that leaves the people that 'won' the main lottery and acquired extra ticcies. The theoretical maximum number of tickets that could be available due to over subscription is 20,000. Reality is probably more like 10,000. To many variables in this for a closer calculation.

Lets guess 10,000 and lets guess that 5,000 of those find there way to groups with the other 5,000 finding there way to non group affiliated individuals.

That means that at the end of the day something like a maximum of 80% of theme camp/group/etc demand will be met. It also means that something like 11,000 to 23,000 actual people who want to attend will not get a ticket (using 57,000 as the maximum attendance)(not including people that intended to buy later but will now not have the chance).

Moving forward
Theme camps/groups need to be prepared to have 80% of ticcie requests met. Additional campers will need to be drawn from the ranks of the unaffiliataed that might be interested. Labor is there. Plan accordingly. Theme camps/groups that are built around an individual or small core need to be thinking about what happens if that person does not get a ticcie. Personality cults are a bitch when your personality does not show up. But rest assured, the BMorg seems intent to avoid this problem with the creation of a new radically entitled group of insiders. If you love your theme camp/group be prepared to discover that you might not be as important as you think you are because there will not be enough ticcies to go around.

Future?
Lottery it is. I have not seen any other ideas that cover the bases without completely destroying a principal or two (is it time to rethink some principals? Have some been ignored already?). Expect ticcies to be limited too 2 per sale. Expect the number of ticcie available to commoners to drop significantly because the BMorg will need to cover the expanding newly created entitled groups. Expect theme camp/group applications to also include an option to purchase tickets for 'core' (read entitled) individuals. The new theme camp/group management will compete not only for desired real estate but also for necessary tickets.

Controls?
The BMorg needs to ban all outside media hence forth. The media results in advertising which in turn results in oversubscription. More draconian options exist but that is a start. For example they might consider banning all commercial photography etc. The current situation is the direct result of over exposure of Burning Man in a variety of media. Word of mouth is more than enough. No need to keep secrets but BM does not need more exposure. Redirect media to the charitable operations.

The BMorg needs to carefully consider how they prevent large theme camps/groups from becomming institutionalized. The risk of the newly entitled becomming permanent ticket allocations is real. This has already happened to some extent (Conclave et al) but I would say that more needs to be avoided or BM will lose it's soul and turn into a stagnent bunch of clicks.

[moonrise]

<snip>
That's on top of the pre sale 10,000.
<snip>

Do you know for sure if there were 10,000 lottery entrants for the pre sale?

[International Incident]

<snip>
That's on top of the pre sale 10,000.
<snip>

Do you know for sure if there were 10,000 lottery entrants for the pre sale?

it was 3 or 5k

[Igneouss]

<snip>
That's on top of the pre sale 10,000.
<snip>

Do you know for sure if there were 10,000 lottery entrants for the pre sale?

obviously not. But given the massive oversubscription of the main sale (nearly 3x) I find it hard to believe that the presale did not sell 10k tickets. There has also been some speculation that the presale was oversubscribed and that the BMorg sold more than 10k tickets because it could not resist the temptation to generate a bunch of early revenue (remember that the LLC is a for profit enterprise).

[BBadger]

obviously not. But given the massive oversubscription of the main sale (nearly 3x) I find it hard to believe that the presale did not sell 10k tickets. There has also been some speculation that the presale was oversubscribed and that the BMorg sold more than 10k tickets because it could not resist the temptation to generate a bunch of early revenue (remember that the LLC is a for profit enterprise).

Let's stick to the known facts huh? Your wild and unfounded accusations about that dastardly "for-profit" BMOrg are getting more and more ridiculous.

[Igneouss]

Lets see,
On the one hand we have badger (who is approaching stalker status).
On the other hand we have articles from respected authors that have run in publications like the NYT and SFBG.

[Igneouss]

Links for badger: (and anyone that thinks the BMorg finances are benine)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-hei ... 31948.html
http://philanthropy.com/blogs/philanthr ... ofit/39229
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/busin ... wanted=all

[Wrath]

Lottery it is.

If that's the case I'll happily shit in a bucket outside the exclusion zone. The only good thing this lottery brought about are the lulz.

The BMorg needs to ban all outside media hence forth.

More draconian options exist but that is a start.

The BMorg needs to carefully consider how they prevent large theme camps/groups from becomming institutionalized.

Ja wohl mein Führer!!!

[Igneouss]

LOL
Got any better ideas? Would love to heaer about them. I'm sure the BMorg would as well.

Cheers

[BBadger]

Lets see,
On the one hand we have badger (who is approaching stalker status).
On the other hand we have articles from respected authors that have run in publications like the NYT and SFBG.

Ah right, stalking you, of all people. Don't flatter yourself. But hey, I'll call you out on your bullshit like anybody else.

Those are some really cute articles posted up there, but even they say nothing (because there is nothing) even remotely alluding to such false accusations (or do you call it "speculation"?) that BMorg sold more than 10k tickets because "it could not resist the temptation to generate a bunch of early revenue." That is entirely the disinformation you are spreading.

[Igneouss]

I particularly note the reporter who was asked by the BMorg to sign a form preventing him from asking any questions about BMorg finances - prior to conducting any interviews...

There's some nice ethics for ya.

Transparency... sheesh.

[moonrise]

As I recall there were 3k tickets available in the pre sale (maybe 10k did apply).
I read everyone who entered the pre sale got their ticket(s). I wonder if they'll even do a pre sale next year.

Side note:
Squaw Valley USA ski area (near Lake Tahoe) sure packs a lot of vehicles in daily (15k x's 4 people+ per vehicle=60k per day!) and the ONLY way in or out is on a tiny road. No government entity gives them a difficult time about needing to "evacuate" and Squaw Valley has floods, forest fires, avalanches, you name it (the playa has dust and maybe rain/lightning, did I miss anything else?) and Squaw Valley's setting is amongst the public (also protected!) forest lands. They have traffic control for miles and miles (and more miles all the way to I-80, the very same Interstate highway BM uses!) using hired hands (some of them local freinds=jobs).
Many Tahoe locals do NOT ski and they must wait for alternating lanes of traffic to be allowed to drive through (taking turns) this can take many hours to get 11 miles to I-80. The Squaw Valley 1960 Olympics brought North Tahoe this problem (some locals are still waiting for them to leave, lol) but most rely on the ski industry to earn a living, and gladly put up with the traffic peaks.

Maybe BLM can and will allow some way to incease the cap, on playa space allowed and traffic control from Interstate Hwy I-80 to the playa. Pay the locals and governments a few extra bucks per ticket to make something like that work. Hire them and maybe even give them an annual check like Alaskans get from the oil companies ($4k per person per year if I recall) just for putting up with the Oil industry.
Burners would never come close to big oil compensation, but we're nice (most of us) and we're only there for 7 to 9 days (a few months at most).
Maybe a reasonable generous charitable donation program or increases to the exisitng charites would please the locals, including the reservation at Pyramid Lake, to vote (or whatever) in favor of allowing traffic control.

I think the scenery to and from the burn is beautiful, traffic control would allow one to soak it in more (plan on an extra day off if you must).


Yes, the playa is LNT & protected, sacred and BIG and I pay taxes to the feds AND Washoe County, call my opinion anything you want, but it is our country. Taxes should get some consideration and those taxes may have little to do with the principals, more to do with our right to have a say (if loud enough) for what our public lands can handle and our funds can hire (for traffic control=local jobs).

Sorry to drift your thread (honestly, I could be entirely wrong about all of the above) just thinking outloud...

[Igneouss]

No worries on the drift. And very good point about traffic. IMO traffic is the biggest controlling factor in the long term equation. Particularly now that current ticket demand suggests BM will be at it's max projected growth rate for the forseeable future.

Cheers

[trilobyte]

Igneouss, just because you wouldn't be able to resist the temptation, or you think others wouldn't be able to resist the temptation does not make your wild claims true.

[Igneouss]

Your hyperboly aside, the BMorgs lack of transparency on all these issues adds significant credence to the NYT story along with other mainstream media pieces.
Follow the money...

[Killbuck]

.

[junglesmacks]

Ah right, stalking you, of all people. Don't flatter yourself. But hey, I'll call you out on your bullshit like anybody else.

I do find it funny how much the known eplaya bullshit artists such as this one and a few other choice ones really loathe you. Go get 'em, Badg..

[Igneouss]

LOL

[unjonharley]

The year they did Malcolm in the Middle two guys stopped me to talk..
When they brought out the big camera, I told them I had to go and I left.. Later when they showed, I could see my back wheels on the Tv.

Screw those that would use our images for there profit..

[vapor]

"The BMorg needs to carefully consider how they prevent large theme camps/groups from becomming institutionalized. The risk of the newly entitled becomming permanent ticket allocations is real. This has already happened to some extent (Conclave et al) but I would say that more needs to be avoided or BM will lose it's soul and turn into a stagnent bunch of clicks."

I think this is the single most challenging and important question moving forward. The org has acknowledged that theme camps and large scale art are a key part of the experience and need to exist. The process of making that happen now seems almost impossibly complicated and unfair. It has been happening for a long time already, through support of art projects and performances that they org has deemed part of the core experience. Theme camps on the Esplenade have been required to be interactive and I think operational 24/7. If you failed that test you didn't get Esplenade placement the following year. If you left a lot of trace you received bad placement, if at all, next year. But, still, up until now any group could pull off whatever they had the resources to do.

Now what ? I sure don't want to see entitled theme camps, with the same ones showing up every year. Maybe there's a theme camp lottery, with x amount of tickets for 3 sizes of camps. Maybe there's some grouping of theme camps the org supports through ticket availability and the process is much the same as applying for an art grant. Don't know, again, interesting and challenging questions.

[inthecolumbiagorge]

If BM cannot grow large enough to accommodate everyone that wants to go and if the lottery system is the one they stick with for selling tickets perhaps they should do the lottery in October so at least everyone KNOWS whether they have tickets or not with lots of time to spare and theme camps can plan appropriately and not waste their time and dollars if they do not have tickets. It would also allow those that do get tickets to join together and create new theme camps if necessary. We are newbs but we would have made quite a few more plans if we would have known 4 months ago that we for sure would have tickets. I know it is like comparing coconuts to basketballs but we got our Coachella tickets on layaway last June, only a month after last years fest and we were secure all year long knowing we were going and it allowed us to plan really well. Just a thought.