2012 Theme Camps - will you make it this year?

[alt12]

Out of my camp of 60 people only 8 got tickets. That's not even enough people to erect the domes for our bar, and that is barely enough people to run the bar and id people at all and none of our camp leaders got tickets. I think this year burning man is gonna be the man, the temple, center camp, and a bunch of tents.

If you need more than 8 people to build a dome, you're doing it wrong....

[CapnJoe]

[quote="Kernul Killbuck"]Quote: "P.S. Kernel, I love the phone booth."

[b][color=#808000]Oh yes... but it needs something.... ok, here--[/color][/b]

.[/quote]

Damn Killbuck! I appreciate your art!!!!!!!!

[BlackRockCityPimp]

Although only 40 camps of data, and early data, but we can see how this can affect camps getting ready, to and running at BRC for 2012.
If you ended up with extra tickets, you know where they can go to good use...

Nice, some real polling data.

I have no idea about my own camp, because not everyone has responded and we don't know how many people are actually planning on attending. Of the have tickets/want tickets the ratio is actually > 50% having tickets. That only represents about 1/4th of the people on the list however, and even then, the list has duplicates and other bullshit. I wonder how accurate the data is from the camps, and how much is redundant as well (say two people from the same camp report the same statistics)?

Too bad it isnt real polling data. I see that my camp with 100 percent of campmates ticketed that was reported in the thread isnt listed. I also know for a fact that 4chan/Anon camp has 100 percent of tickets with just over 20 campmates. Not all themecamps can stomach participation on eplaya and most burners cannot be on epkaya for one reason or another. I personally know several camps that dont register as a themecamp and many burners that have been run off of eplaya over the years.

[junglesmacks]

I personally know several camps that dont register as a themecamp and many burners that have been run off of eplaya over the years.

Imagine that..

Why don't you come clean with your previous username? Wouldn't be a few.. skeletons.. now would there be?

[vargaso]

Although only 40 camps of data, and early data, but we can see how this can affect camps getting ready, to and running at BRC for 2012.
If you ended up with extra tickets, you know where they can go to good use...

Nice, some real polling data.

I have no idea about my own camp, because not everyone has responded and we don't know how many people are actually planning on attending. Of the have tickets/want tickets the ratio is actually > 50% having tickets. That only represents about 1/4th of the people on the list however, and even then, the list has duplicates and other bullshit. I wonder how accurate the data is from the camps, and how much is redundant as well (say two people from the same camp report the same statistics)?

Too bad it isnt real polling data. I see that my camp with 100 percent of campmates ticketed that was reported in the thread isnt listed. I also know for a fact that 4chan/Anon camp has 100 percent of tickets with just over 20 campmates. Not all themecamps can stomach participation on eplaya and most burners cannot be on epkaya for one reason or another. I personally know several camps that dont register as a themecamp and many burners that have been run off of eplaya over the years.

Ha, 4chan/Anon camp all got tickets, imagine that!

[Canoe]

Too bad it isnt real polling data.

Yup. I can only use what I found, and where someone has provided the numbers. There's 344 2012 Ticket related topics with over 11,000 posts: I'll guarantee I've missed some.
And it's limited/biased to those who chose, for their own reasons, to report the numbers.
Not much I can do without specific numbers, like

...my camp with 100 percent of campmates ticketed that was reported in the thread...

What camp? How many members? How many tickets? What thread? Care to share?

I also know for a fact that 4chan/Anon camp has 100 percent of tickets with just over 20 campmates.

Can you point me to where this camp reports their numbers?

[BlackRockCityPimp]

Too bad it isnt real polling data.

Yup. I can only use what I found, and where someone has provided the numbers. There's 344 2012 Ticket related topics with over 11,000 posts: I'll guarantee I've missed some.
And it's limited/biased to those who chose, for their own reasons, to report the numbers.
Not much I can do without specific numbers, like

...my camp with 100 percent of campmates ticketed that was reported in the thread...

What camp? How many members? How many tickets? What thread? Care to share?

I also know for a fact that 4chan/Anon camp has 100 percent of tickets with just over 20 campmates.

Can you point me to where this camp reports their numbers?

I reported our camp in this very thread.. pg 2 or 3. As far as 4chan/Anonymous camp their numbers came up in a discussion on a voice conference. I know for a fact that the dont register as a themecamp, it sort of goes along with their principles. You may have seen one of em in BRC wearing a guy fawkes mask and black suit or a pedobear furry outfit. Some other camps I have heard of that go unregged yet are still themecamps are Stag Camp, Orphan Camp, and some zoophile camp I cant remember the name of. I am sure there are camps that I am not aware of that also go unregistered. I think the stag camp guy is mootztstick or somesuch and I cant even begin to come up with a name for the orphan camp or zoophile camp person to contact. As far as Anons go they tend to spend alot of time on irc and their own forums though I saw no posts on anonyops or theplan about burningman. I met the anon camp folks at a scientology protest back when I lived in LA as a result of having a camelbak with brc swag attached.

[Pop_Tart]

Mal-Mart has 5 of our normal 20 Core camp members with tickets, but we have no fear. Mal-Mart will be back in force for 2012 Burning Man. We actually have a really interesting way to deal with the lack of tickets:

http://eplaya.burningman.org/viewtopic. ... 83&t=53975

Cheers,
PopTart

[Canoe]

What camp? How many members? How many tickets? What thread? Care to share?
I reported our camp in this very thread.. pg 2 or 3.

Thanks!

[Canoe]

44 camps' data now, for what it's worth
44 camps, 1991 people, 356 with ticket (17.9%), 1635 without

0% (5 camps, 110 people - no tickets)
<10% (3 camps, 345 people, 9 with ticket (2.6%), 336 without)
<20% (14 camps, 935 people, 115 with ticket (12.3%), 820 without)
<30% (6 camps, 170 people, 40 with ticket (23.5%), 130 without)
<40% (7 camps, 207 people, 65 with ticket (31.4%), 142 without)
<50% (3 camps, 143 people, 60 with ticket (42%), 83 without)
<75% (3 camps, 31 people, 21 with ticket (67.7%), 10 without)
80% (2 camps, 20 people, 16 with ticket (80%), 4 without)
100% (1 camps, 30 people, 30 with ticket (100%), 0 without)

brc 2012, camps reported members with tickets, Feb 8, 2012.jpg

[alt12]

[quote="Canoe"]44 camps' data now, for what it's worth
44 camps, 1991 people, 356 with ticket (17.9%), 1635 without

0% (5 camps, 110 people - no tickets)
<10% (3 camps, 345 people, 9 with ticket (2.6%), 336 without)
<20% (14 camps, 935 people, 115 with ticket (12.3%), 820 without)
<30% (6 camps, 170 people, 40 with ticket (23.5%), 130 without)
<40% (7 camps, 207 people, 65 with ticket (31.4%), 142 without)
<50% (3 camps, 143 people, 60 with ticket (42%), 83 without)
<75% (3 camps, 31 people, 21 with ticket (67.7%), 10 without)
80% (2 camps, 20 people, 16 with ticket (80%), 4 without)
100% (1 camps, 30 people, 30 with ticket (100%), 0 without)
/quote]


44 out of 700 is not a bad sample.... Granted its biased a) by ePlaya and b) by likely exaggeration to get BMORG's attention....

[BlackRockCityPimp]

What camp? How many members? How many tickets? What thread? Care to share?
I reported our camp in this very thread.. pg 2 or 3.

Thanks!

no prob, i also agree that there are too many fawkin tix threads. since yer countin have u considered checking the registered themecamp list on the main page from last year and checking camps that posted here and tribe last year?

[Canoe]

44 out of 700 is not a bad sample.... Granted its biased a) by ePlaya and b) by likely exaggeration to get BMORG's attention....

44/700 isn't bad, but it's sure not random, let alone double-blind. Hugely biased by: it's those that use eplaya; and, something made them choose to post results. My gut feel from the posts is that the numbers they're posting they believe to be true. But we have no way of knowing... My guess is that those with low percentage of tickets are the ones more likely to post their results.
I trust BMorg has better, and sufficient, data available to them for their brainstorming for possible solutions.

What I find interesting, is to see:
> how many people are affected by 44 camps, and
> how many tickets they need.

Some of those camps have said
> they will not have their camp at BRC 2012,
> others that they'll scale down, or
> a sub group will make a smaller alternate camp (just?) for 2012.
I'm trying to see if there's a way to graph that. Easy to show the first, but to also accommodate the 2nd and 3rd can make for a jumbled illegible result.

[bleurose51]

Looking at those numbers, even assuming a reporting bias, and making an assumption that even HALF of the people in those camps actually DID order tickets in the lottery (hopefully more, but lets be conservative), that means something like 44 out of 350 tickets ordered, or just over 12% were fulfilled. If we expand that to a huge random lottery of 35,000 tickets (i.e., x 100), then only 4400 tickets of those ordered would have been fulfilled. Let's assume that this particular sample is somewhat biased and that actually twice as many in the 35,000 sample were actually fulfilled, i.e., 8800. That still leaves 31,000 tickets unaccounted for out of 40,000. In effect, there would have to have been 150,000 tickets ordered (more than 4x the number in our sample) to have the same results. And that is assuming VERY CONSERVATIVE roll-up. If you do a direct rollup (assume the sample we have is completely representative across all camps), then you have 4x as many tickets being ordered or 600,000 to fulfill 40,000 with only 44 out of any 700 actually getting a ticket. However, I will stay with the more conservative numebrs.

The point is that no matter WHAT demand growth curve there was, it is almost inconceivable that more than 100,000 more people all of a sudden this year decided to go to burning man. I just don't think that is remotely possible. So the only other options are that MOST people ordered 4-6x the number of tickets they needed (which would be DIFFICULT at the least and STILL wouldn't result in the vast majority of the tickets going in large clumps leaving many whole sectors getting only 10-15% of their orders). Again, statistics in this large a population just would say that is extremely unlikely.

So the only other answer has to be scalpers and it just flies in the face of reality to keep denying it. Its embarrassing and sad but BM shouldn't be feeling like it is their fault.. They just complicate the situation by refusing to provide the real facts and then letting us all work together to solve the problem.

This is a fiasco. It needs to be fixed. It can be fixed. Hopefully it will be fixed. But acting like it didn't happen and refusing to let the people who have trusted in you and worked for/with you for so long not have open access to the information, THAT is what causes the really bad problems and so far, that is what has been making this worse every day.

Sigh...

[bradtem]

As pointed out, camps that report that they got 100% of their tickets are admitting to something -- they oversubscribed in the lottery. With a lottery success rate reported as 25 to 33% by various sources, it's almost impossible a large camp could have gotten all their tickets without asking for more than they needed. And people don't want to admit that here, now. So it's hard for us to learn just how many camps did this, in spite of much speculation that it happened a lot. We see only the reports from camps that did not oversubscribe.

My guess is that probably around 150,000 ticket requests came in, which would produce a success rate just under 30%. This jibes with the BMOrg report that they got double what they were expecting. I didn't expect 150K but I did expect over 100K.

[Canoe]

As pointed out, camps that report that they got 100% of their tickets are admitting to something -- they oversubscribed in the lottery. With a lottery success rate reported as 25 to 33% by various sources, it's almost impossible a large camp could have gotten all their tickets without asking for more than they needed. ...

Not necessarily. The numbers I got are limited to those I found or were pointed out to me.
I have one 30 person camp reporting 100%. The core of a camp, 10 people with 8 tickets. Another with 8/10 tickets. Another with 6/8. Another core with 11/15. One with 4/8. All others either didn't provide numbers (one camp around 80%, one at 50%, one at 40%, one at 10%), or their numbers place them at under 50%.
It's reported that everyone who registered for pre-sale got what they ordered; some of the camps reported tickets from pre-sale, but I didn't capture that. So, 30/30 or 8/10, 6/8, etc., after pre-sale and lottery is a small enough sample of 40,000 tickets that you can't expect small camps to match the 20%-25% rate.

[mzfit]

I am with Stag Camp - one of the unregistered theme camps mentioned earlier. This will be our 6th year on playa. On our website we have an unofficial poll going to try and get some perspective. Out of 29 that have responded so far (our site has over 300 registered members - we generally are a camp of about 100 people each year) we are showing 13 with tickets and 16 without. I do know of a number of other staggers that haven't responded to the poll - but have indicated to me that they don't have tickets. I am believing that we have only about 2 dozen people that do have tickets - leaving the large majority of us without. The camp will be there - but it will definitely be different this year.

[Campmaster]

I'm the CampMaster for 7 Sins Lounge (9 o'clock Plaza). This would be my 14th straight burn (if tickets can be found) and the 10th for our theme camp. Only 3 of my 20 campmates have gotten tickets and none of them are part of the core setup/early admissions group. Our other burner friends I've talked to are in the same boat- scrambling for tickets, so I don't see any chance of extra tickets coming our way other than aftermarket.

That said, we plan to move forward and submit theme camp and art car applications in the hope things work out, but I have a strong feeling the 7 Sins will not make it this year.

[AntiM]

One sin? Do we get to pick?

[zerzura]

Just adding some numbers in here. We are an art support camp that also functions as a theme camp. Of our counted-on group of 24 people, we have 6 tickets. To confuse the matter for you statistic generators out there, not all 25 registered in the lottery, as we have 2 different art grants in and are hoping to receive a few tickets that way. For some reason that seems laughable to me now, we had figured we would wait till March to find out about the grant, then buy in the open sale if we did not get it and try to fund our art projects entirely on our own. Now, we have decided that if we do not receive a grant, we will probably not be able to bring some or all of the projects. Just too many resources will go into finding and buying tickets, and we will not be able to lure the *skilled* members who we need to pull everything off.

[pink]

The problem with some of the stats, as I see it, is that most of the numbers are coming from registered theme or otherwise large camps. There are a lot of totally unaffilliated people who go to Burning Man, and by this I am not just talking about 'tourists' or 'spectators'. I was one of them until last year when I joined a theme camp. First year, camped with longtime burners in their camp, which was just a camp. About half the people in the camp, including the owners, were Gate crew or other early volunteers. the rest of the camp filled up with friends & family of the volunteers and a group that camp from Japan every year. The next few years I camped in Cafe Village. Not 'core staff', just one of the coffee slingers. Then they had no room for my van & I joined another unregistered camp. then last year, theme camp.

The point of this is, I was one of those off the radar burners for most of my existence. Read but didn't post here much. Wouldn't be counted anywhere, with or without ticket, since I wasn't a core part of anything, just a coffee slinger. (and still sling coffee). There are a lot of them out there; another (a former walk-in camper) joined our camp last year too.

So my feeling is, that although scalpers definitely have tix, and could sweep the open sale if limitations aren't put into place, they don't have ALL the 'missing tickets'.

[alt12]

The problem with some of the stats, as I see it, is that most of the numbers are coming from registered theme or otherwise large camps. There are a lot of totally unaffilliated people who go to Burning Man, and by this I am not just talking about 'tourists' or 'spectators'. I was one of them until last year when I joined a theme camp. First year, camped with longtime burners in their camp, which was just a camp. About half the people in the camp, including the owners, were Gate crew or other early volunteers. the rest of the camp filled up with friends & family of the volunteers and a group that camp from Japan every year. The next few years I camped in Cafe Village. Not 'core staff', just one of the coffee slingers. Then they had no room for my van & I joined another unregistered camp. then last year, theme camp.

The point of this is, I was one of those off the radar burners for most of my existence. Read but didn't post here much. Wouldn't be counted anywhere, with or without ticket, since I wasn't a core part of anything, just a coffee slinger. (and still sling coffee). There are a lot of them out there; another (a former walk-in camper) joined our camp last year too.

So my feeling is, that although scalpers definitely have tix, and could sweep the open sale if limitations aren't put into place, they don't have ALL the 'missing tickets'.

Most of burning man is "unaffiliated" people as you describe. I mean there are only 700 or so registered theme camps but there are literally thousands of unregistered theme camps doing all sorts of fun and interesting things. Certainly my camp was like that until finally deciding to register about 5 years ago. We aren't providing much more now than we were prior to becoming "official" but certainly once you get to a certain size the pressure to register increases mainly for planning purposes (i.e. being on the map, early arrival, predictable location, etc.) Being a "registered" theme camp does't reflect in any way on what you contribute. I've seen many shitty-ass registered camps ... In the end we're all just coffee slingers, some of us just have government recognition, that's all...

[ZaphodBurner]

I'm the CampMaster for 7 Sins Lounge (9 o'clock Plaza).

You guys were one of our favorites in 2010! We were The Green Hour, just down 9 from you. My wife and I couldn't make it last year, but she mentioned you last week at our camp meeting and said she hoped you'd make it.

We're in the same boat, same numbers but I'm plowing forward anyway. Hope to see you there!

[ZaphodBurner]

ps ... In the end we're all just coffee slingers, some of us just have

bullhorns. Coffee slingers with bullhorns.

I like the coffee slingers with flamethrowers, and with art-ships with trapeze artists performing between the masts. The Roaster Coaster.

I like looking at all of the neon, lasers and fire that makes up the Esplanade. Because I'm radically self-reliant, I can actually make my own coffee and because I'm a musician I can make my own songs, but it takes a bunch of friends planning for a long time to build the airport, or The Machine, or any of the things people look at when they look at Black Rock City at night.

You get recognized because you've submitted a plan and made a promise to show up early enough to help build Black Rock City, to contribute something of interest to participants, and to clean up your area when you leave. You participate in the city, and the city participates in you.

Other people just show up to see what's been built for them, and to charm people with their fabulous costumes and magnificent personalities, take pictures of all their new friends, and upload their adventures to YouTube and Flickr, and leave on Sunday. These people must be pretty awesome but unless they're on fire, they're not as interesting as the Flaming Lotus Girls.

[Galaxo Magic]

As pointed out, camps that report that they got 100% of their tickets are admitting to something -- they oversubscribed in the lottery. With a lottery success rate reported as 25 to 33% by various sources, it's almost impossible a large camp could have gotten all their tickets without asking for more than they needed. ...

Not necessarily. The numbers I got are limited to those I found or were pointed out to me.
I have one 30 person camp reporting 100%. The core of a camp, 10 people with 8 tickets. Another with 8/10 tickets. Another with 6/8. Another core with 11/15. One with 4/8. All others either didn't provide numbers (one camp around 80%, one at 50%, one at 40%, one at 10%), or their numbers place them at under 50%.
It's reported that everyone who registered for pre-sale got what they ordered; some of the camps reported tickets from pre-sale, but I didn't capture that. So, 30/30 or 8/10, 6/8, etc., after pre-sale and lottery is a small enough sample of 40,000 tickets that you can't expect small camps to match the 20%-25% rate.

As a member of a camp that has numerous times stated that we got 8 of the 10 CORE member tickets we needed. Our breakdown is like this, 2 were bought in the pre-sale, 3 of 4 orders for two tickets at $320 were awarded. We did not over apply, worse yet, there are about 10-12 other folks that camp with our camp and they got 0 tickets, so maybe the number should have been 8 of 21 tickets. I just reported the Core members, the ones that plan, build, spend all year, not the other camp folks that bring stuff and help out, do shifts driving the MV, cook, whatever. So maybe my numbers were whacky. The 10 CORE members are the ones that the camp would NOT happen if they were not there.

[Galaxo Magic]

The problem with some of the stats, as I see it, is that most of the numbers are coming from registered theme or otherwise large camps. There are a lot of totally unaffilliated people who go to Burning Man, and by this I am not just talking about 'tourists' or 'spectators'. I was one of them until last year when I joined a theme camp. First year, camped with longtime burners in their camp, which was just a camp. About half the people in the camp, including the owners, were Gate crew or other early volunteers. the rest of the camp filled up with friends & family of the volunteers and a group that camp from Japan every year. The next few years I camped in Cafe Village. Not 'core staff', just one of the coffee slingers. Then they had no room for my van & I joined another unregistered camp. then last year, theme camp.

The point of this is, I was one of those off the radar burners for most of my existence. Read but didn't post here much. Wouldn't be counted anywhere, with or without ticket, since I wasn't a core part of anything, just a coffee slinger. (and still sling coffee). There are a lot of them out there; another (a former walk-in camper) joined our camp last year too.

So my feeling is, that although scalpers definitely have tix, and could sweep the open sale if limitations aren't put into place, they don't have ALL the 'missing tickets'.

Most of burning man is "unaffiliated" people as you describe. I mean there are only 700 or so registered theme camps but there are literally thousands of unregistered theme camps doing all sorts of fun and interesting things. Certainly my camp was like that until finally deciding to register about 5 years ago. We aren't providing much more now than we were prior to becoming "official" but certainly once you get to a certain size the pressure to register increases mainly for planning purposes (i.e. being on the map, early arrival, predictable location, etc.) Being a "registered" theme camp does't reflect in any way on what you contribute. I've seen many shitty-ass registered camps ... In the end we're all just coffee slingers, some of us just have government recognition, that's all...

I am in the same boat. I spent my first 9 years in an unregistered camp. We had a camp that people loved to visit but where not on any map. Then after 2009 I got asked to join some friends of mine in there theme camp for 2010. So in 2010 and 2011 I have been a part of a theme camp. It is still sort of a new experience for me. I like not doing the 'land grab'. I like getting in early and building for 4 days, then partying for a week.

I have not talked with the folks that I used to camp with in the unregistered camp. They are not on ePlaya. When I get some numbers from them I will post it.

[Campmaster]

[quote="ZaphodBurner"][quote="Campmaster"]I'm the CampMaster for 7 Sins Lounge (9 o'clock Plaza). [/quote]

You guys were one of our favorites in 2010! We were The Green Hour, just down 9 from you. My wife and I couldn't make it last year, but she mentioned you last week at our camp meeting and said she hoped you'd make it.

We're in the same boat, same numbers but I'm plowing forward anyway. Hope to see you there![/quote]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks ZaphodBurner - I remember your camp too and you've just made my day!-

I've been reading the postings for 2 weeks and was feeling pretty down and burned out but your comment reminded me why we go - the excitment of meeting old and new friends and sharing something personal that you create (aren't we all just kids building forts?) and having someone say "hey, that's cool!"

Maybe we'll make the Playa after all!....
- CampMaster

[Canoe]

46 camps, 2046 people, 363 tickets (17.7%), 1683 needed.

0% (5 camps, 110 people - no tickets)
<10% (3 camps, 345 people, 9 with ticket (2.6%), 336 without)
<20% (15 camps, 955 people, 116 with ticket (12.1%), 839 without)
<30% (7 camps, 194 people, 46 with ticket (23.7%), 148 without)
<40% (8 camps, 228 people, 73 with ticket (32%), 155 without)
<50% (3 camps, 143 people, 60 with ticket (42%), 83 without)
<75% (3 camps, 31 people, 21 with ticket (67.7%), 10 without)
80% (1 camps, 10 people, 8 with ticket (80%), 2 without)
100% (1 camps, 30 people, 30 with ticket (100%), 0 without)

[Theres Always One]

44 camps' data now, for what it's worth
44 camps, 1991 people, 356 with ticket (17.9%), 1635 without

0% (5 camps, 110 people - no tickets)
<10% (3 camps, 345 people, 9 with ticket (2.6%), 336 without)
<20% (14 camps, 935 people, 115 with ticket (12.3%), 820 without)
<30% (6 camps, 170 people, 40 with ticket (23.5%), 130 without)
<40% (7 camps, 207 people, 65 with ticket (31.4%), 142 without)
<50% (3 camps, 143 people, 60 with ticket (42%), 83 without)
<75% (3 camps, 31 people, 21 with ticket (67.7%), 10 without)
80% (2 camps, 20 people, 16 with ticket (80%), 4 without)
100% (1 camps, 30 people, 30 with ticket (100%), 0 without)

brc 2012, camps reported members with tickets, Feb 8, 2012.jpg

Also, I'd like to add my camp: 2 people, 2 with tickets (100%), 0 without)

[much2naughty2]

I understand from our camp organizers that Deviant Playground won't be on the playa for 2012. Something like 6 out of 20 with tickets.