I took a look at the actual census since 1995 when there was the first official theme and the event had settled onto the playa as its permanent home. The average attendance grew by 13% each year since then.Spritle712 wrote:You're almost certainly correct.AntiM wrote:Spritle712 wrote:I don't think real demand increased two, three or four fold. I guess one indicator would be the number of people signed up for JRS (also the number who were signed up when tickets sold out last year). That would be a good proxy.
I still think it is scalpers (or scalpels if you prefer).
I think it is a perfect combination of a number of factors. No one single answer suffices.
I accept that real demand from burners for tickets increased dramatically. Say like 40%. That would mean that the ~60k people who wanted tickets last year increased to say ~80-85k. Based on a rejection rate of ~2/3, people must have submitted to buy at least 120k tickets (I think the number is much, much higher based on our camp's 85% failure rate). I know that the SF theme camps aren't sitting on the tickets. I hear distant noise from burner acquaintances that a ticket or two are unclaimed but there's little evidence a lot tickets sitting with actual burners. So I'm thinking that scalpers are big driver of this calamity.
Still waiting to hear from BRC. I think they have another week to give a more robust response per the Guardian article.
If tickets were not sold out last year, based upon historical growth, the actual attendance would have been about 58k. Based upon that number for another 13% growth this year, we are looking at a probable 65k persons who would actually make it to the playa. This would be a reasonable number based on historical data which does NOT take into account the first years of exponential growth.
Between those who truly want to be there and those who were forced to apply for the lottery prior to considering the logistics, it is not outrageous whatsoever to believe there are at least twice as many people(not applications) desirous of going this early in the year.