Mitch wrote:Unless the numbers we're getting from Burning Man are totally off base, only 40% of the tickets went to newbies, so there should be many, many more than 30% of the theme camp members with tickets. There's no way around that.
There is a vast difference between 40% of tickets went to
birgins and 30% of theme campers with
"40% went to
" is theoretically a hard number- 40% of tickets would be 16,000 tickets. Simple math.
"30% of theme camp members have
" could be anything- how many people is that?
There are around 700
theme camps! Some have 3 or 4 members, some have over 200 (our village, made up of smaller camps, had over 250 people it: that's just one village, but our camp is just 3-5 people. Right now our camp isn't registered separately, but some of our affiliates are- do they count as part of the village or as independent in these percentages?). Is 30% 1,000 tickets? 10,000 tickets? 24,000 tickets? It's simply not a hard number
- it's a percentage of... anything, basically.
As an example of how fuzzy this number is- lets say we average out this number to, I don't know, 25 people requesting per theme camp- that would give us 17,500 people requesting tickets, at two tickets avg (yes, I'm rounding- it's guesswork)
per request that would give us 35,000 ticket requests. 50 people average per camp would give us 35,000 people & 70,000 tickets requested. This is just theme camps, not birgins, not scalpers, not unaffiliated campers- just theme camps. Without a hard number of tickets requested by theme camps there is no way to know how many actual tickets that "30%" is.
Is it 11,660ish or is it 23,000ish (which would cover almost all of the "missing" tickets). Is it somewhere in between, or over, or under these guesses?
None of this takes into account veterans who aren't part of theme camps, or who don't partake in facebook or the eplaya (yes- there are Burners who disdain the internet! Shocking)
None of this ignores that there are huge swaths of people without tickets, veterans, birgins and anything possible in between. It just means we don't have hard data, and probably won't until after the event (if at all- that decision is the Orgs). Just remember that all speculation, including mine, is exactly that: speculation. A guess.