Estimated Chances in Low Income sale?

[paulo999]

My brother, unemployed, based in Northern California, wants to join me. He's entered for a low income ticket.

Anyone care to guess how over-subscribed these tickets have been previously? I'm wondering whether it's going to be very difficult, one-in-ten scenario or maybe more like 50-50 (hoping for something more like the latter).

Any speculation or guesses welcome

[Isotopia]

Reasonably expect 1 in 20.

[tamarakay]

wow, iso is more optimistic then I am!

[paulo999]

Reasonably expect 1 in 20.

Ouch... that makes for 60k applying... am hoping it won't be that bad. Hoh well, what will be will be. All I can do is hope.

(The last time I had some one-on-one time with my brother was 26 years ago. I was 19 years old, my first time in America. We loaded his Mustang with beer and steak, drove out to Joshua tree, had a fire and slept on the desert floor. Burning man seems kind of resonant. Hope the gods are on our side!)

[trilobyte]

It's not a case of 'chances' in the same way that random drawing is. It's based on need, and depends more on his situation and application than anything else.

[paulo999]

It's not a case of 'chances' in the same way that random drawing is. It's based on need, and depends more on his situation and application than anything else.

Ah ok - I didn't know that, thanks. It's a great thing that it's offered. I can't think of any big event (in Europe) that does this, and the price is amazing. That it's done based on judgement is even more incredible.

I won't bore with his situation, but hopefully his hard luck will turn into burning luck.