Playa Climate Prediction Center

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:16 pm

motskyroonmatick wrote:
Simon of the Playa wrote:yes, thats all fine and good, but was she topless?
Since you mentioned it.....

I was obsessing with broom in hand over having a dry mud free place for people to hang out since shade was DESTROYED!!!! I was sweeping mud clods out of the cuddle puddle and making sure all the muddy shoes were in a good place.....When suddenly this dripping wet topless shivering woman appeared just outside of the cuddle puddle asking for a sweater. Naturally I invited her under the tarp but she declined with body language that was all about being miserably cold and wanting warmth and a bit of modesty back. Since I couldn't make it stop raining on her I soiled my now impeccably clean shoes with an immediate trip to the worlds greatest box truck for my contest winning ugly sweater. I returned with it and handed it over asking if possible she could return the sweater at some point. I was kind of attached to that sweater as it was so prize winningly terribly outrageous. It had an 18 inch turtle neck!!! I never saw her or the sweater again.

*sets to work decoding colored part...*

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:55 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:
motskyroonmatick wrote:
Simon of the Playa wrote:yes, thats all fine and good, but was she topless?
Since you mentioned it.....

I was obsessing with broom in hand over having a dry mud free place for people to hang out since shade was DESTROYED!!!! I was sweeping mud clods out of the cuddle puddle and making sure all the muddy shoes were in a good place.....When suddenly this dripping wet topless shivering woman appeared just outside of the cuddle puddle asking for a sweater. Naturally I invited her under the tarp but she declined with body language that was all about being miserably cold and wanting warmth and a bit of modesty back. Since I couldn't make it stop raining on her I soiled my now impeccably clean shoes with an immediate trip to the worlds greatest box truck for my contest winning ugly sweater. I returned with it and handed it over asking if possible she could return the sweater at some point. I was kind of attached to that sweater as it was so prize winningly terribly outrageous. It had an 18 inch turtle neck!!! I never saw her or the sweater again.
*sets to work decoding colored part...*

It means he's not Jewish, and, may have once been in the film industry.

jcliff · Post by **jcliff** » Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:18 pm

Take this for what it is, just a conjecture on 2012 playa conditions. Heavy rains on the playa as of late coupled with above average snow. So, one would hope that we can expect hard-pack playa this August/September.

This is a capture from the Gerlach webcam this morning.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:24 pm

the key seems to be substantial standing water AFTER, the last freeze of the year.

TomServo · Post by **TomServo** » Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:54 pm

I'm curious to find out if playa activities in July have any measurable effect on dust levels in August.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Sun Apr 01, 2012 9:05 pm

If the timestamp is 12:08:38 we should have a level playa floor.

Post by **Eric** » Sun Apr 01, 2012 11:16 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:If the timestamp is 12:08:38 we should have a level playa floor.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

God I needed that.

Post by **trilobyte** » Sun Apr 01, 2012 11:21 pm

My understanding is that there was little to no precipitation before the freeze (ie no standing lake that gets frozen and presses down on the playa for several months). Snow might have been heavy in the last few weeks (they started getting it in February), but it may be a case of too little too late for providing a hard packed playa. The one we had in 2011 was the result of a heavily flooded playa through most of the winter, not a few weeks.

Weather we get a dusty apocalypse or not remains to be seen, that probablydepends more on what happens in late spring and summer than anything else. One thing I'm pretty sure of is we won't get the same conditions we had in 2011.

Bob · Post by **Bob** » Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:29 am

TomServo wrote:I'm curious to find out if playa activities in July have any measurable effect on dust levels in August.

No, but in my experience the bullshit levels around Labor Day have a measurable effect on the bullshit levels the following July.

Playa+Tom · Post by **Playa+Tom** » Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:18 pm

I was on the playa yesterday. I went in at the 12 mile entrance and ventured out a quarter mile or so. The surface was a little rough mostly because of people driving on a wet surface creating ruts. I could see that there had been some standing water but it was dry yesterday and looking across the playa I saw no standing water. There were a few others out on the playa, and they said the surface was relatively smooth and hard. We have been having a fairly wet spring after a very dry winter, it is a long time until the burn so pray for rain.

TomServo · Post by **TomServo** » Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:05 pm

Bob wrote:
TomServo wrote:I'm curious to find out if playa activities in July have any measurable effect on dust levels in August.
No, but in my experience the bullshit levels around Labor Day have a measurable effect on the bullshit levels the following July.

Don't you mean the Late January/Early February bullshit levels?

C187 · Post by **C187** » Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:20 am

Forget the playa packing, my prediction is it's going to be hotter then normal. Or at least last year.

DrYes · Post by **DrYes** » Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:57 pm

trilobyte wrote:My understanding is that there was little to no precipitation before the freeze (ie no standing lake that gets frozen and presses down on the playa for several months).

Ice doesn't 'press' down any harder than water does, so I don't think this will matter. They both have the same mass and create roughly the same amount of pressure.

One thing I'm pretty sure of is we won't get the same conditions we had in 2011.

You're probably right, but fingers crossed!

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:39 pm

the issue with ice and frozen playa is not pressure or weight, it's "frost heave" and or "pressure ridging, from when the frozen playa/ice expand .

lemur · Post by **lemur** » Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:35 pm

i predict dust wont be a concern in 2012.

the playa will be covered in the corpses of 45,000 55,000 newcomers who know nothing, this is going to keep dust to a minimum, as they wont be out riding around on their infernal bikes.. and their corpses will be covering up the playa keeping the dust from flying off.

knowmad · Post by **knowmad** » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:42 am

It is going to be flat.

And greyish-brown.

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:27 am

Pic from this last weekend:

remi · Post by **remi** » Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:40 am

I predict a balmy 25C, nice refreshing sprinkles during the hottest part of everyday.. that will keep the dust down to a minimum... the nights will be nice tshit/shorts weather... and on the last day, it'll start raining donuts!

Drawingablank · Post by **Drawingablank** » Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:22 am

I just channeled my inner psychic and you can count on the following prediction:

Playa condition will vary by location and timeframe. There will be dust. You can also expect wind and a fair amount of sun along with a low chance of precipitation. A fair amount of darkness can be expected at night as well.

Hope this was helpful.

Canoe · Post by **Canoe** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 10:07 am

Drawingablank wrote:... You can also expect wind and a fair amount of sun along with a low chance of precipitation. A fair amount of darkness can be expected at night as well...

TV weather report when I was in Africa. Same "forecast" every time I saw it. They'd suggest and agree that it would be: sunny and warm in the morning, getting warmer through the day, maybe some clouds but not likely any rain, dark and a little cooler at night. Each day it took two people a whole minute to deliver this same forecast and they were grinning ear to ear throughout. Never an actual temperature reading from the past day, nor any prediction.

Elorrum · Post by **Elorrum** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 10:17 am

fine to mainly fine.
snakes, and brownie piles, not too crusty and deep at 2:00. wind, more wind, lots lots of dust. 1/16" per hour. one shower, one rainbow. Don't wash your car before you go.

Rice · Post by **Rice** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:38 pm

I will be flat.

There will be hard-packed spots, and maybe some soft dunes.

It will be windy. And at night, maybe less so.

If it is windy, this could happen to you:

Plan for the worse weather possible, hope for the best... In the end, if you are properly prepared you will be fine.

Lassen Forge · Post by **Lassen Forge** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:58 pm

I think it will be like the Playa. We will have dust. We will have soft spots. We will have hard spots. But overall, it will be crowded with way too many people.

(BTW - what fluffs the playa is "heave" from the water in the surface freezing, the ice expanding, then evaporating. Leaves this nice matrix waiting to be turned into dust!

jcliff · Post by **jcliff** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 6:16 pm

My secret hope is that it will be apocolyptic conditions....I mean the four horseman riding down the esplanade epic. I'd like to see next year's viral video titled "Hold On to Your Mother Fucking Hat" instead of the cheery "Oh, the Places You'll Go!" Mother Nature may be our best hope for normalizing ticket sales next year.

mgb327 · Post by **mgb327** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 6:23 pm

I personally am hoping for a few good days of simply "coming out of it alive" weather to weed out the...oh, nevermind.

Bob · Post by **Bob** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 7:14 pm

There will be blood, piss, and patchouli.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 7:19 pm

If that doesn't weed them out, then god help us all...

Elorrum · Post by **Elorrum** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 7:39 pm

a wind that will strip them right down to their skeletons.

Canoe · Post by **Canoe** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 8:04 pm

jcliff wrote:...I'd like to see next year's viral video titled "Hold On to Your Mother Fucking Hat" ...

mgb327 wrote:I personally am hoping for a few good days of simply "coming out of it alive" weather to weed out the...oh, nevermind.

Yes!
+100
I love that type of weather...
Where it knocks you down and you have to crawl back.
Where a tent fly will pull a canoe up onto a plane.
Used to watch for strong winds to rush out single handed on a dingy, in the diapers out on the trapeze with a hockey-stick strapped to the tiller extension, with the spinnaker up flying across the top of the waves; catch the spinnaker in the water and suddenly it's a sea anchor and instantly the shock cord is gone and the mast with trapeze line is now a trebuchet. More fun than out in thunderstorms with the toes under the hiking straps waiting for your hair to stand on end so you release your toes and the sheets to fall into the water so the lightening doesn't hit you.

Not sure I want to be around having to rescue "good morning campers" and tourists... or dodge what they didn't secure.
Actually, to think of it, I'm lucky to be around to be able to...

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Sun Apr 08, 2012 8:57 pm

Thank you Elorrum. I love that.

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