Did you get a STEP Ticket?

lemur · Post by **lemur** » Thu May 10, 2012 7:56 pm

junglesmacks wrote:One hand clapping.

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FELIXWOLFRAM · Post by **FELIXWOLFRAM** » Thu May 10, 2012 8:15 pm

theCryptofishist wrote:STEP has us utterly at its mercy, we are caught in the claws of its, not randomness..., caprise. We're human, we try to have power over this mighty and unpredictable system by looking at things like goat entrails and time stamps because we cannot bear to think that we must twist in the wind at its pleasure. Of course that's funny. It's sad, too. and profoundly human. We can look at this just like we look at Captain Kirk sucking in his gut on TOS and say, ah, yes, there's that primate with the thumbs again--whether we see it as comedy, tragedy, history, light operetta, or absurdism.

you're right fish..hater is the wrong word(although I do think it's funny that you immediately responded as though I was speaking of you..which might say you think of yourself as somewhat of a hater

)...there hasn't been anyone out there who has straight up said "if you think timestamps are accurate..then you're stupid." just a few concerned people who don't want their fellow burners(or burners to be) to be too reliant on what the bloody goat entrails say..all I was saying is that I'm ok with those bloody bits..yes lemur.."stop harshing my buzz!"..that's what I'm saying..I think that most if not all in STEP(hopefully myself included) will be on the playa soon..because we want it and we'll make it happen if it's in the stars..or if the goat entrails do decree it so...

By the way...I'm totally shallow and self-satisfied

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Thu May 10, 2012 8:30 pm

lemur wrote:
junglesmacks wrote:One hand clapping.

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Gee.. you win.

catinthefunnyhat · Post by **catinthefunnyhat** » Thu May 10, 2012 8:35 pm

Don't make me come back there, you two.

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Thu May 10, 2012 8:44 pm

Law of attraction?

catinthefunnyhat · Post by **catinthefunnyhat** » Thu May 10, 2012 8:45 pm

gyre wrote:Law of attraction?

Shhhh... it's a Secret.

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Thu May 10, 2012 9:16 pm

I already checked the garage.

Still no F1 out there.

catinthefunnyhat · Post by **catinthefunnyhat** » Thu May 10, 2012 9:51 pm

You don't believe hard enough. I can tell, because you're checking. Don't check! Just do!

westnileraven · Post by **westnileraven** » Thu May 10, 2012 9:52 pm

[quote]After tickets ship, Will Call folks will be the only STEP users through August 7th. [/quote]

wait wait wait. what? Let me walk myself through this.
Once tickets are shipped in early June, the majority of bought tickets will no longer be eligible for resale though step. Only will calls and low income and other STEP. SO with the internationals, maybe 15% could possibly maybe go through step but probably won't.
Ok so in June, I can start begging the locals for paper tickets. My chances until the end of this month are still my chances, but after "Beginning of June" which will probably be a couple days later since everything gets done later, my chances in STEP go almost entirely to shit. HRM. Okay.
I'm at 12:17 with no knowledge of seconds. C'mon 12:17!!!!

I'm in favor of the random estimated wait times along the drive

FELIXWOLFRAM · Post by **FELIXWOLFRAM** » Thu May 10, 2012 11:41 pm

westnileraven wrote:
I'm in favor of the random estimated wait times along the drive

sorry west...REWTs, or in laymen's, Random Estimated Wait Times, are not helpful at all..sure..you could be next in line....wait for it........nope...didn't happen..did it?...no..you are more likely to be last..which really sucks..right?...that is why I am inviting you to join our group....Unified Believers in the Awesomeness of Timestamp Accuracy!..We believe that the timestamp method of estimating when you will acquire a STEP ticket the ONLY way to truly find out when you will receive your Burning Man ticket.....OK..so lets try this out....what was your exact timesta..oh.......that's right...you don't know the seconds......oh well...it will work anyway...I'll just plug some numbers into my trusty Totally Accurate Timestamp Queue Generator(TM).....oooookaaayyy....12:17....yep...carry the 3....divide by pi..........what day is it again?.....oh..that's right..the 10th......oh crap..Mothers Day is in three days...I better go get her something nice......anyway..are you ready west?!......you will get your STEP ticket offer on Sunday the 27th of May at 5:32PM PST....Like I said before..this method is completely accurate...so have fun!..and I'll see you on the playa!(my timestamp is 12:16:40...so I'll be getting my ticket at 1:18PM PST the same day)

Grokstar · Post by **Grokstar** » Thu May 10, 2012 11:53 pm

Just wanted to thank you all for providing lots of entertainment for me as I compulsively check this thread everyday and get excited when a new
page is added. I'm near the end of the queue at 12:20, but remain hopeful. The banter and craziness you all provide helps.

BBadger · Post by **BBadger** » Fri May 11, 2012 2:31 am

OldSoulYoungBody wrote:Based on eplaya results, there is a positive correlation between step email times and ticket offers. I am completely confident that there is at least a 95% confidence correlation between the two. It appears to be accurate give or take some seconds.

A post like yours comes across as ignorant and continues the discussion.

Let's see the data dude. I want to know how you come to this "extremely confident about confidence" conclusion.

What are you even really correlating here? What are the random variables? What kind of relationship are you trying to prove? And what is the data?

For timestamps, the timestamp would be the random variable if a pool of people were randomly assigned timestamps. On the other hand, the timestamp could be not random, and the number of people who have that timestamp is (from first come first served). What we know is that it is the latter, and that people who signed up to STEP first got earlier timestamps. Therefore, the number of people at a given timestamp is the random variable, and this also implies that the number of serviced tickets at a given timestamp will be directly proportional to the number of people who have that timestamp (assuming most people don't drop out).

So you're correlating--finding a dependence between--the number of people residing at a given timestamp with what? The frequency of people returning tickets into STEP? How would those be related? That doesn't make sense. Does a reduction in the number of claimed STEP winnings mean that there is a larger number of people at that timestamp? If the queue seems to be "speeding up" is that indicating that less people were at that timestamp?

And again, where is this data to back up this 95% confidence? 66 people on eplaya? I think the conference paper review would be "Strong Reject."

[youtube][/youtube]

Angel Ben · Post by **Angel Ben** » Fri May 11, 2012 5:57 am

12:13 here checking in, I just got a $390 ticket out of STEP today! Pretty awesome actually, as it's my birthday! I got up and thought "gee it would be the best birthday present ever if STEP came through today" and there it was!

Also, it's worth noting that I had two emails: a 12:13 and a 12:17, and had been wondering which one would count. At least in my case, the earlier time was the one that mattered. Hopefully that will help ease the minds of anyone else who had the same thing happen.

See you all out there!

5280MeV · Post by **5280MeV** » Fri May 11, 2012 7:31 am

OldSoulYoungBody wrote: Based on eplaya results, there is a positive correlation between step email times and ticket offers. I am completely confident that there is at least a 95% confidence correlation between the two. It appears to be accurate give or take some seconds.

I would caution against assigning confidence to a dataset such as this in the manner as one does not expect any sort of a normal or Gaussian distribution of the data. In other words, the queue ordering by timestamp will not be randomly jittered by a few seconds one way or another as if random noise was applied, instead one might expect large jumps and intermittent patterns like a poorly shuffled deck. The reason for this is that there are multiple servers, threads, or processes communicating, likely caching and buffering in such a way to create random jumps, interleaving, and other effects.

This would mean that one could look at a subsample of the data and see a perfect correlation for a stretch, but then see the pattern collapse or suddenly change as a batch of applications from another server or even just block of memory began processing.

Here is a "cartoon" of what one could see with this sort of a dataset:

sample_chart2.png

Note that a time-ordered sample is certainly not a trustworthy simple random sample.

Given the size of the population (n=2000), and the reasonable expectation that the distribution will deviate strongly from a Gaussian, I really doubt that the Central Limit Theorem even applies, and therefore no statistical inference can be trusted.

I still think that it is fun to speculate, though.

StrangerDanger · Post by **StrangerDanger** » Fri May 11, 2012 10:38 am

Most windows computer clocks are synced on the internet once a day. I assume the same hold true on macs. Therefore the 20 or so network computers BMORG used will have been synced. ALL HAIL THE HOLY TIMESTAMP. YOU SHALL NOT HAVE FAITH IN ANY OTHER SOURCE OF INFORMATION.

True_Angel · Post by **True_Angel** » Fri May 11, 2012 10:57 am

BEST gift ever huh

to bad YOU have to BUY yours but I would take that ANYDAY. 12:19 for my soulmates chance in the line

hope he gets one, cant renew vows on the playa alone. But wanted to congrats you, think pretty cool

anestero · Post by **anestero** » Fri May 11, 2012 11:45 am

12:08 got 2 390 tickets on May 6th

FELIXWOLFRAM · Post by **FELIXWOLFRAM** » Fri May 11, 2012 2:29 pm

StrangerDanger wrote:ALL HAIL THE HOLY TIMESTAMP. YOU SHALL NOT HAVE FAITH IN ANY OTHER SOURCE OF INFORMATION.

YES! Stranger!...Preach the good word my brother!!! THE TIMESTAMP IS THE ONLY WAY TO GET TO BURNING MAN!!!

lemur · Post by **lemur** » Fri May 11, 2012 2:48 pm

the STEP timestamp works on the DREADED "PLAYATIME"

Post by **Savannah** » Fri May 11, 2012 3:02 pm

lemur wrote:the STEP timestamp works on the DREADED "PLAYATIME"

That would explain a lot.

Jenifersteppat · Post by **Jenifersteppat** » Fri May 11, 2012 6:47 pm

Ok I am freaking out a little...maybe you guys/gals that understand computers better can help. All along I have considered myself a 12:17'er (+/- 5 mins) and never really looked at the seconds. Now when I look at my added to STEP email on my home computer, which used to say 12:17 now says 12:27!! When I look at my iphone it says 12:17. Here is what it says on the details on my home computer:

From Burning Man Tickets Fri Mar 2 12:17:24 2012
X-Apparently-To: jenifersteppatXXXXXX.com via 66.94.238.160; Fri, 02 Mar 2012 12:27:38 -0800
Return-Path: <[email protected]>

Which am I??? Thanks for any responses...

b42575p · Post by **b42575p** » Fri May 11, 2012 7:09 pm

STEP seems to be chugging along nicely!

FELIXWOLFRAM · Post by **FELIXWOLFRAM** » Fri May 11, 2012 7:55 pm

Jenifersteppat wrote: From Burning Man Tickets Fri Mar 2 12:17:24 2012
X-Apparently-To: jenifersteppatXXXXXX.com via 66.94.238.160; Fri, 02 Mar 2012 12:27:38 -0800
Return-Path: <[email protected]>

Which am I??? Thanks for any responses...

you're all good jenifer!..a 12:17er you are...the important one of those numbers is the "From Burning Man"....THE ALMIGHTY TIMESTAMP SAYS YOU WILL RECEIVE BURNING MAN TICKETS!!!

FELIXWOLFRAM · Post by **FELIXWOLFRAM** » Fri May 11, 2012 8:06 pm

AND ALL WILL REJOICE IN AND BASK IN THE GLORY OF TIMESTAMP!!!...Amen

StrangerDanger · Post by **StrangerDanger** » Fri May 11, 2012 8:24 pm

AMEN! PRAISED BE THE HOLY EPLAYA FOR TELLING US ALL WE NEED TO KNOW FOR TTITD

Ed Phunk · Post by **Ed Phunk** » Sat May 12, 2012 3:08 am

Angel Ben wrote:12:13 here checking in, I just got a $390 ticket out of STEP today! Pretty awesome actually, as it's my birthday! I got up and thought "gee it would be the best birthday present ever if STEP came through today" and there it was!

Congrats.. i was 12:14.. virgin to the big burn here. I think when the e-mail comes i might have a nervous breakdown. I'm going to have to ask my grandmother to spot me the money for the ticket though.. for those who got it.. can you use ANY credit card? or does it have to be the one you originally used? Somebody put my mind at ease lol

International Incident · Post by **International Incident** » Sat May 12, 2012 3:16 am

Ed Phunk wrote:
Congrats.. i was 12:14.. virgin to the big burn here. I think when the e-mail comes i might have a nervous breakdown. I'm going to have to ask my grandmother to spot me the money for the ticket though.. for those who got it.. can you use ANY credit card? or does it have to be the one you originally used? Somebody put my mind at ease lol

[/quote]

Ed- radical self reliance and all that ... The answer you seek is in the FAQ part of ticketing page! Seek and you shall find.

VampireKitten · Post by **VampireKitten** » Sat May 12, 2012 8:36 am

Ed, if you read a couple of pages back on this discussion you'll find the answer to that.

Ed Phunk · Post by **Ed Phunk** » Sat May 12, 2012 10:16 am

eh sorry.. that post was at 6:30am with no sleep. found it.. n/m

jecca · Post by **jecca** » Sat May 12, 2012 10:46 am

Somehow managed to find 2 separate tickets within a week... happy happy!

Did you get a STEP Ticket?

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HAPPY BDAY Angel Ben

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